OwnersBox NFL DFS introduces a unique challenge with its superflex format. This new site allows users to roster quarterbacks in the superflex position, amplifying the “stacking debate” in lineup construction. Determining how much to stack, whether to game stack, and how much stacking to use in your OwnersBox lineup can be puzzling. Fortunately, there is a solution to address these questions.
Stokastic's NFL Sims and Contest Generator provides valuable insights into which lineup constructions, stacks, and players yield the highest return on investment (ROI) for the Sunday NFL DFS main slate on OwnersBox. By simulating various lineup combinations, we can gain a better understanding of how to optimize the superflex position.
When it comes to utilizing the superflex optimally, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. The optimal approach will depend on factors such as the slate, contests being played, and player salaries. However, by analyzing the Sunday NFL DFS Slate, we can generate some basic guidelines.
To start, it is recommended to use the Stokastic's NFL Sims Tool to generate a large pool of lineups. Avoid imposing personal biases and preferences when using this research tool on an unknown site with an unsolved format. Running 10,000 lineups in the tool produces the following breakdown: 82.9% QB+1 stacks, 26.8% QB+2 stacks, 2.9% QB+3 stacks, and 15.2% unstacked lineups. It is safe to assume that the unstacked lineups contribute to the rake in mid- to large-field GPPs.
Based on the top-150 lineups by ROI in the pool, the breakdown is as follows: 14/150 QB+3, 59/150 QB+2, 77/150 QB+1, and 0/150 unstacked. In other words, stacking is essential and unstacked lineups are not profitable. Furthermore, all of the top-150 ROI lineups in the simulation feature quarterbacks in the superflex position.
Regarding game stacking, wherein you roster two opposing quarterbacks and their pass catchers to capture correlation and upside, it is not advisable for Sunday's OwnersBox NFL DFS main slate. Among the top 150 highest-ROI lineups, only three featured game stacks, all of which were Chargers-Dolphins stacks. This suggests that game stacking is not worth it in terms of projections, ownership, and salaries. The highest-ROI lineups predominantly avoid game stacking.
Digging into specific player and stack ROI numbers for Week 1 on OwnersBox, the Cincinnati Bengals' offense stands out as the highest-ROI stack on the slate. Joe Burrow and his pass catchers are prevalent in the top 150 lineups, with varying stack sizes. Tyler Boyd and Irv Smith Jr. emerge as the most profitable players to pair with Burrow, as they offer strong complements to Bengals stacks and are not highly owned.
Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders is the highest-ROI running back in the simulations. Although the Raiders stack may not look particularly strong, Jacobs is a compelling one-off play due to his price and upside. Consider pairing Jacobs with low-owned stacks, such as Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos, to create unique lineup constructions.
In summary, optimizing lineup constructions and stacks in OwnersBox NFL DFS requires careful consideration of the superflex format's nuances. Stokastic's NFL Sims and Contest Generator provides valuable insights into the highest ROI lineup constructions for the Sunday NFL DFS main slate. Stacking quarterbacks is crucial, while game stacking may not be worth it. Players like Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith Jr., and Josh Jacobs offer strong complements to stacks and present compelling options for lineup construction.